It is not for another reason that a series of industrial investments aiming at to the exportation comes being postponed in the country and some companies are leaving the country. Of another side, it can be perceived clearly that the balance of approximately US$ 21 billion in this year (until September 2009), comes being pulled for the sales of basic products whereas the importations of intermediate products and industrial goods come strong growing. This factor shows clearly the Dutch Illness in the country, that is, the trade balance is surplus, the rocking of payments in balance, however had only Brazilian competitiveness in commodities. The claims of the addressed President SQUID to the company Valley of the River Candy so that it increases the aggregate value investing in the production of the steel do not obtain reply, therefore the problem is not in the desire or not of its CEO, Mr. Roger Agnelli. The yield is conditional that will only appear the depreciated taxes of exchange more. The claim would have to be made to the monetary authorities in the conduction of the exchange politics.
In this direction, it gains relevance and deserve applauses the fact of the Government SQUID to be assaying one politics of selective control of capitals with valuation of IOF in October of 2009 in the financial operations of short term, but that is little. She is necessary more, much more! Given the chances that Brazil will have in the next decade it urges that the administrators of the economic policy stop a shock against the chronic appreciation of the Real. This is the main obstacle so that the country comes back to grow robustly. The national industry is also the main factor of risk. Of certain, an inflation tax a little more raised given exchange depreciation will be felt and will have, at a first moment, wage losses. But the proper economic growth will put in charge for the side of the demand for recompor work these losses. It also has an excellent aspect on the inflation, therefore considering the existing idle capacity in some industrial sectors, can be reduced the weight of fixed costs and fixed financial incubencies on the companies, opening space for the reduction of prices the medium and long run contributing to neutralize the inflation generated for the exchange. Brazil has an extraordinary possibility of in such a way alavancar its growth in the next decade in the industrial area, extrativa and agricultural, since that it decisively faces the Dutch Illness that it is depreciating and that case will depreciate the exchange tax still more nothing is made. (*) Vitor Bellizia, 42 years, is executive financier, graduated and postgraduate Administration for the EAESP-FGV, professor of financial administration of the Cautious College of Moraes and Local ProfessorFinanas of the FGV/RJ. She was Vice-president of the ANFAVEA. (2005/07)