Risk Analysis

Particular attention should be exercised to those risks, the probability of occurrence is large, as well as to those risks that can inflict maximum damage proektu.Otobrav most important risks are transferred to their quantitative analysis. The most important element of quantitative risk analysis is a sensitivity analysis. For its implementation must povarirovat various project parameters (price, volume implementation, construction period, inflation rates, etc.) and see how this change in performance. In this case, identifying the most critical parameters that can most affect the efficiency project. In this case, calculated boundaries and break-even point, ie actually reveals a set of parameters of the project when the project would be effective and set the parameters of the project under which it will be ineffective. Analyzes the range of possible values of uncertain parameters and, accordingly, the degree of possibility of adverse scenarios proekta.V framework of quantitative risk analysis is performed also estimate the expected effect (integral index) of the project, taking into account the quantitative characteristics of uncertainty (probability distribution, range of variation of uncertain parameters, etc.). On the basis of integrated performance of projects are subject to risks can make management decisions about the feasibility of projects, comparing projects between themselves and t.d.V currently the most effective an integrated approach to risk analysis.

On the one hand, this approach provides a more complete picture of the possible outcome of the project, ie all positive and negative surprises, investors expected, and on the other hand, makes possible a wide application of mathematical methods (especially the probabilistic and statistical) analysis of the theory of risk riskov.V distinguish the following types of mathematical models: direct, inverse problems and sensitivity studies. In the direct problem of estimating the risk associated with determining its level, is based on a priori known information. In inverse problems are established restrictions on one or more variable input parameters to meet specified limits on the level of acceptable risk. The main idea of the method sensitivity studies used in connection with inevitable inaccuracy of the initial information is a vulnerability, the degree of variability of output indicators in relation to variations in model parameters (probability distribution, the range of those or other variables, etc.). Findings of the study the sensitivity of the investment project reflects the degree of reliability of the analysis of project results. In the case of the unreliability of the analyst will be forced to implement one of the following: to clarify the parameters, the inaccuracy of which is the most significant result in the distortion, change the methods of processing raw data to reduce the sensitivity response; change the mathematical model of analysis of project risks; refuse to conduct a quantitative analysis of business risk of the project.

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